Behind the Push for Saudi-Israeli Accord: Geopolitics, Ambitions, and Palestinian Concerns

US President Joe Biden is welcomed by Mecca province governor Prince Khaled al-Faisal (white robe) and Princess Reema bint Bandar Al-Saud (L), Saudi Arabia's ambassador to Washington, at the King Abdulaziz International Airport in the Saudi coastal city of Jeddah, upon his arrival from Israel, on July 15, 2022. - Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty
Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty

The Biden administration seems committed to brokering a normalization agreement between Saudi Arabia and Israel as a principal foreign policy achievement. These attempts, shrouded in secrecy and fueled by speculation, intensify as the 2024 presidential elections draw near. However, concerns arise as some view these efforts as sidelining Palestinian interests.

This U.S.-backed push is deeply rooted in a dynamic geopolitical landscape. Saudi Arabia has been subtly drifting away from its historic ally, the United States, forging ties with other major players such as China, Russia, and even Iran. Recently, China mediated an agreement between Saudi Arabia and Iran, paving the way for restored diplomatic ties. Significantly, Saudi Arabia has been invited to join the BRICS alliance —a consortium of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa— further diversifying its global partnerships.

For the Biden administration, a Saudi-Israel normalization deal offers a twofold advantage. Firstly, it’s a political score, potentially outshining Trump’s accomplishment with the Abraham Accords between Israel, the United Arab Emirates, and Bahrain in 2020. Secondly, it represents a reaffirmation of US influence in the region.

But here’s where complexities arise. Unlike the Abraham Accords, the Palestinian question looms larger over a potential Saudi-Israel normalization deal. Given Saudi Arabia’s stature in the Arab and Muslim worlds, any agreement with Israel devoid of addressing the Palestinian issue could dent its reputation. The current Israeli government, with figures like Smotrich and Ben-Gvir, known for their staunch positions on Palestinians, complicates the matter. Moreover, Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich’s assertion that no concessions will be made to the Palestinians for a Saudi deal underscores the challenges.

Recent reports indicate a temporary halt in Saudi-Israel normalization talks. Many speculate this interruption is due to the Israeli government’s internal dynamics and the influence of hard-liners like Ben-Gvir and Smotrich. Saudi Arabia seems inclined to strategically involve Palestinians in discussions, seeking to maintain leverage over negotiations— a departure from the Abraham Accords framework.

Yet, the U.S. remains persistent in its diplomatic endeavors. The State Department has underlined its commitment to fostering Israel-Saudi normalization and championing broader regional integration.

But as the U.S. urgently works towards this agreement, underlying challenges underscore the obstacles in its path. The U.S., having staunchly supported Israel for decades, is now contending with its evolving role and repercussions in the region. Israel, currently navigating internal dynamics and divides and unleashing more violence against the Palestinians, may become the flashpoint for a wider regional upheaval. The U.S., in its bid to assert regional supremacy, aims to tether strategic allies like Saudi Arabia, keeping them away from rivals like China, by promoting normalization with Israel.

However, there’s a subtlety the U.S. may be overlooking: Israel aims to reshape the region to align with its strategic goals, instead of adapting its stance and policies to integrate more within the region. This approach was evident in the Abraham Accords, reflecting Netanyahu’s belief that peace with the broader Arab world can be secured while sidelining the rights and concerns of Palestinians. Consequently, Israel now boldly seeks normalization with Saudi Arabia without offering significant concessions.

The drive towards Israel-Saudi normalization, though politically attractive, teems with intricate dynamics. As global and regional tectonics shift, there’s an imperative for diplomatic endeavors to be equitable and comprehensive, addressing the legitimate aspirations of all parties involved, especially the Palestinians.

Jehad Abusalim is Executive Director of The Jerusalem Fund/​Palestine Center. The views in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of The Jerusalem Fund.